After a record-breaking summer, homebuyers are headed for the best months to score a deal on a home.
Turns out that October is statistically the best month to buy a home.
Homebuyers, it seems, pay a premium no matter the month. However, they pay much less over market value in fall and winter months than they do in spring and summer, according to ATTOM’s analysis of more than 33 million single-family home and condo sales from 2013-2020.
The study compared median sales price with the median automated valuation model, or AVM, a computerized estimate of home value.
Over the last eight years, homebuyers have paid a 2.9% premium in October compared to a 11.5% premium in May. The lower the premium, the less homebuyers paid over market value.
Related: Home Affordability Rankings Reveal the Best Kept Secret in Housing
The best and worst times to buy a home
October is not a slow month for sales by any means, though. It has been one of the busiest months in the last eight years, with just 30,350 fewer sales than May. However, homebuyers pay just $6,000 over the AVM value in October compared to $21,626 in May.
This may be due to sellers being more willing to reduce asking price to avoid being on the market in the winter when home values bottom out.
In terms of paying the smallest premium, December (3.4%), November (3.9%), and January (3.9%) follow closely behind October. According to ATTOM, the best days to buy based on premium are:
| Day | Premium |
|---|---|
| December 5 | 1.6% |
| December 26 | 2% |
| January 6 | 2.2% |
| November 9 | 2.3% |
| December 31 | 2.4% |
Meanwhile, the five worst days to get a deal on a home all fall in May.
| Day | Premium |
|---|---|
| May 23 | 17.4% |
| May 27 | 17.4% |
| May 20 | 16.6% |
| May 16 | 15.6% |
| May 19 | 15.4% |
To pay below market value, homebuyers need to be in the right place at the right time. Historically, the opportunities to get the best deal on a home occur in the following states and months:
| State/Month | Premium |
|---|---|
| Delaware/February | -7.9% |
| Tennessee/January | -7% |
| New Jersey/February | -4.9% |
| Maryland/November | -4.8% |
| Ohio/January | -4.8% |
While the 2020 and 2021 housing markets have been anything but normal, 2021 seems headed for a traditional seasonal downturn, which didn’t happen in 2020. That suggests homebuyers may in fact be in for the best homebuying months of the year — even if the bar for a good deal has been lowered.
Some references sourced within this article have not been prepared by Fairway and are distributed for educational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed to be accurate and may not entirely represent the opinions of Fairway.
